Accuracy & track record
After every gameweek we score the last prediction published before the official team sheets against the actual starting XIs. Nothing is cherry-picked: every team we predicted is included.
85%Season hit-rate (1 GWs, 18 team-lineups)
9.33/11Avg. correct starters, GW8
0.093Brier score GW8 (naive baseline 0.246)
92%Of players rated 90%+ actually started (n=83)
Weekly results
| GW | Teams | Correct of 11 | Hit-rate | Perfect XIs | Brier (naive) | Log loss | Minutes MAE | Median lead time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW8 | 18 | 9.33/11 | 85% | 2 | 0.093 (0.246) | 0.301 | 15.6 | 996 min |
Calibration, GW8
When we say 70%, do 70% of those players start? Points on the diagonal mean well-calibrated probabilities; bubble size shows how many players are in each band.
| Band | Players | Avg. predicted | Started |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.1 | 175 | 3% | 2% |
| 0.1–0.2 | 31 | 14% | 19% |
| 0.2–0.3 | 14 | 24% | 29% |
| 0.3–0.4 | 11 | 36% | 46% |
| 0.4–0.5 | 15 | 44% | 53% |
| 0.5–0.6 | 24 | 54% | 42% |
| 0.6–0.7 | 16 | 64% | 81% |
| 0.7–0.8 | 14 | 75% | 50% |
| 0.8–0.9 | 70 | 87% | 93% |
| 0.9–1.0 | 83 | 94% | 92% |
Team by team, GW8
| Team | Correct | We picked, didn't start | Started, we missed | Prediction made before KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 11/11 | — | — | 996 min |
| Coventry City | 11/11 | — | — | 477 min |
| AFC Bournemouth | 10/11 | Ryan Christie | Justin Kluivert | 996 min |
| Chelsea | 10/11 | João Pedro | Geovany Quenda | 627 min |
| Crystal Palace | 10/11 | Honest Ahanor | Dwight McNeil | 996 min |
| Fulham | 10/11 | Sander Berge | Hugo Larsson | 477 min |
| Liverpool | 10/11 | Rio Ngumoha | Cody Gakpo | 996 min |
| Manchester City | 10/11 | Phil Foden | Rayan Cherki | 327 min |
| Arsenal | 9/11 | Riccardo Calafiori, Kai Havertz | Mikel Merino, Viktor Gyökeres | 477 min |
| Aston Villa | 9/11 | Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendía | Alysson Edward, Johan Manzambi | 327 min |
| Brentford | 9/11 | Mikkel Damsgaard, Jaidon Anthony | Aaron Hickey, Dango Ouattara | 996 min |
| Hull City | 9/11 | Matt Crooks, Sorba Thomas | Tim Iroegbunam, Elliot Stroud | 996 min |
| Leeds United | 9/11 | Nico Elvedi, Lukas Nmecha | Jaka Bijol, Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 1146 min |
| Manchester United | 9/11 | Matthijs de Ligt, Bruno Fernandes | Ayden Heaven, Mason Mount | 996 min |
| Sunderland | 9/11 | Omar Alderete, Habib Diarra | Chris Rigg, Brian Brobbey | 1146 min |
| Everton | 8/11 | Jarrad Branthwaite, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Jack Grealish | Jake O'Brien, Brennan Johnson, Tyrique George | 477 min |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8/11 | Pedro Porro, Conor Gallagher, Dominic Solanke | Mateus Fernandes, James Maddison, Mathys Tel | 627 min |
| Newcastle United | 7/11 | Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Miley, Yoane Wissa | Fabian Schär, Daniel Burn, Jacob Murphy, William Osula | 996 min |
How we score
- Correct of 11: overlap between our most likely XI (best goalkeeper + 10 best outfield players) and the actual starting XI.
- Brier score: mean squared error of every player's start probability (all squad players, not just our XI). The naive baseline predicts the overall start rate for everyone.
- Cut-off: we use the last prediction published before kick-off and before the official team sheet appeared. Predictions made after the line-ups are out never count.
- Minutes MAE: average absolute error of expected minutes vs minutes actually played.