Gameweek 9 · updated
Who starts this weekend?
Start probability, expected minutes and rotation risk for every Premier League player, refreshed several times a day and whenever team news breaks. Every change is logged with its source and time, and we publish how accurate we were.
9.3/11Avg. starters correct, GW8
85%Predicted starters who started
0.093Brier score (lower is better; naive 0.246)
1100Logged changes this gameweek
Accuracy figures come from our weekly evaluation against the actual lineups. See the full track record.
Gameweek 9 fixtures
- Chelsea v Man UtdEarly forecast
- Bournemouth v LeedsEarly forecast
- Brentford v Nott'm ForestEarly forecast
- Coventry v SunderlandEarly forecast
- Hull City v IpswichEarly forecast
- Man City v BrightonEarly forecast
- Spurs v PalaceEarly forecast
- Aston Villa v FulhamEarly forecast
- Liverpool v ArsenalEarly forecast
- Newcastle v EvertonEarly forecast
Latest changes
- Lucas Bergvall Spurs · Start probability: 0% → 15% Model update
- Lucas Bergvall Spurs · Expected minutes: 0′ → 20′ Model update
- Lucas Bergvall Spurs · Status: Out → Doubtful Model update
- Mikey Moore Spurs · Start probability: 5% → 4% Model update
- Callum Olusesi Spurs · Start probability: 5% → 4% Model update
- Callum Olusesi Spurs · Expected minutes: 7′ → 6′ Model update
- Luca Williams-Barnett Spurs · Start probability: 5% → 4% Model update
- Ben Davies Spurs · Start probability: 5% → 4% Model update
What makes LikelyXI different
Probabilities, not guesses
Each player gets a start probability and expected minutes rather than a single "predicted XI".
Every change has a source
Press conference, club channel, journalist or model update — linked and time-stamped in UK time.
Published accuracy
Weekly hit-rate, calibration and Brier score against the actual starting lineups.